Will the high-speed line attract more passengers?

While users already want more trains, the new Toulouse–Bordeaux–Dax line will enable 5 million more passengers to make carbon-free journeys.

When the line opens, it is estimated that there will be 3 million additional long-distance passengers per year on the Toulouse–Bordeaux line and 5 million additional passengers per year on the Dax line. In total, 17 million passengers are expected to use the high-speed line: 9 million passengers per year to and from Toulouse and 8 million to and from Dax.

The modal share of rail transport would increase significantly. Forty-five per cent of journeys between Haute-Garonne and Île-de-France are made by train: this percentage would rise to almost 60% with the high-speed line. Similarly, between Gironde and Southern France, the modal share of rail would double from 13% to 26%.

The success of the Paris–Bordeaux high-speed line

We benefit from feedback on high-speed rail from the domestic transport orientation law (LOTI) reports, available on the LISEA socio-economic monitoring centre website. These reports quantify the socio-economic and environmental impact of major infrastructure projects three to five years after they come into service.

The traffic observed on the Bordeaux–Paris high-speed line shows that the actual number of additional passengers has far surpassed estimates. Opened in 2017, the high-speed line Sud Europe Atlantique (SEA) between Paris and Bordeaux is attracting more than 3.8 million additional passengers per year. (2.6 to 3.5 million extra passengers were forecast.) The passenger profile is broad: families, workers, young people, tourists, etc. for leisure and/or business. The opening of the line has created a new commercial offer, such as the low-cost Ouigo ticket service, which has contributed to the increase in passenger numbers. This accounts for around 25% of journeys.